Can Minnesota, Wisconsin Still Get Big Snowstorms During an El Niño Winter?

If you've been paying attention to the winter forecasts lately, you've probably heard the same message over and over: warm, mild, and maybe not much snow.

For a lot of people across Minnesota and Wisconsin, that sounds like music to their ears. For skiers, snowmobilers, and ice fishing diehards, and the businesses that support them, not so much.

The reason is El Niño, and this isn't an ordinary one. The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities says this year's event is on track to be the strongest ever observed, and the NWS office in Duluth puts the odds at 83% that it becomes the strongest since the 1950s.

Why Forecasters Expect A Mild Winter

NOAA's official winter outlook, released last week, favors warmer-than-average temperatures across the Midwest. History backs that up. A Minnesota DNR review of 25 El Niño winters since 1950 found they averaged 1.8 degrees warmer statewide than other winters.

It's a similar story in Wisconsin. The NWS in Green Bay found that strong El Niño events bring warmer-than-average temperatures to the entire state from November through March. The last El Niño, during the winter of 2023-24, gave Wisconsin its warmest winter on record.

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Snowfall tends to follow suit. According to the NWS Twin Cities, four of the five strongest El Niño winters dating back to the Civil War brought very mild temperatures to Minnesota. Of the four with reliable snowfall records, three came in below the Twin Cities' annual average of 51.2 inches.

Can We Still Get Big Snowstorms During An El Niño Winter?

However, think twice before you sell the snowblower. The short answer is yes. When the NWS Twin Cities looked at the 25 biggest snowfalls in the metro's weather records, eight of them happened during El Niño winters.

Forecasters say we may see fewer of those small 1-to-3-inch clipper systems, but we're still very much susceptible to "the big one."

Take the winter of 1982-83, which featured what had been the strongest El Niño on record since 1950. The Twin Cities still piled up 74.4 inches of snow that season, including 16.7 inches on December 27-28 and another 13.6 inches on April 13, 1983.

The Duluth office is sending the same message. Meteorologist Josh Sandstrom said that even with a strong lean toward below-normal snowfall, it doesn't rule out snowstorms, "or even major snowstorms."

Warmer temperatures could also mean more rain or a rain-snow mix, which anyone who has shoveled heavy, wet snow knows is its own kind of fun.

Wisconsin has its own reminder. The state's snowiest winter on record, 2018-19, dropped 57.7 inches statewide, and it happened during an El Niño, albeit a much weaker one.

The Halloween Blizzard Proves The Point

Among the biggest storms on the NWS list is one many of us will never forget: the Halloween Blizzard of 1991. It started as kids were out trick-or-treating, and by the time it was over, Duluth was buried under 36.9 inches of snow.

At the time, it was the largest single-storm total in Minnesota history. Two Harbors picked up 36 inches, Eveleth had 30, and the Twin Cities got 28.4 inches, which still stands as the metro's single-storm record.

In Duluth, winds near 40 mph created whiteout conditions for 33 straight hours, and schools and some businesses stayed closed for days.

I remember this storm all too well. I was in college, and my roommates and I didn't have the luxury of a snowblower, so we spent all day shoveling snow to clear the driveway, stairs, and porch.

Then, I had to walk 3 miles to work. It wasn't uphill both ways, but it was not a fun walk since many of the roads had yet to be cleared.

And here's the kicker: the winter of 1991-92 was an El Niño winter. The kind of winter forecasters usually call mild.

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Get The Snowblower Ready Just In Case

El Niño tilts the odds, but it doesn't write the forecast. In fact, NOAA says it's impossible to say whether any one storm was caused by El Niño. A warmer, lighter winter overall can still deliver one storm that everyone talks about for the next 35 years.

So enjoy the milder forecast if you're rooting for it, but keep the shovel by the door, the ice scraper in the car, and the snowblower tuned up. And if you happen to be a college student without one, now might be a good time to get to know the neighbor who has one.