Mayo Clinic Study Predicts Pandemic Outlook Over the Next 4 Months
Mayo Clinic released a study a few weeks about sharing their predicted outlook of the pandemic over the next 4 months. Also in this study, they illustrate the importance of getting the COVID-19 vaccine by showing what the future would like if no one had the COVID vaccine (which is a really scary thing to look at), what would happen if no one else got the COVID vaccine, and what would happen if we already had 75% of Americans vaccinated.
The graph that we're most interested in is Mayo's prediction for what our next 4 months could look like. This is based on current vaccination rates, the fact that once 50-75% of Americans are vaccinated the number of people receiving the vaccine will go down, the current variations of COVID, and the current and potential future infection rate.
What Does Everything on the Graphs Mean?
Here's what all of the lines on the graph mean: The solid line on the graph shows their best prediction, the area between the two dotted lines is the range that has a 50% chance of happening, and numbers falling in the greyed out area has a 90% chance of happening.
Also, for each scenario, there are 3 different graphs. The first graph shows COVID infections, the second graph is the number of patients in hospital general care, and the third graph is the number of patients in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU).
They mention that this is their 'best guess'. Nothing is guaranteed with studies like this but so far their prediction seems to be accurate.
Mayo's 'Best Guess' of How the Next 4 Months Will Go
Here's their prediction over the next 4 months based on how things are going right now:
It looks very promising, which is exciting! They predict a few more weeks of an increase in numbers but then, based on the prediction, it should drop off, especially into the summer when more people have the vaccine.
What if There Was No Vaccine?
But then looking at the next graph is very sobering. This is Mayo's prediction for what the future would look like if we didn't have COVID-19 vaccines available right now. It's based on the current infection rate and the variants.
That's so scary to look at, thank goodness there are vaccines available!
What Would Happen if No One Else Got the Vaccine?
The next scenario is if, as of 04/06/2021 when the study was written, no one else had gotten the vaccine. At the time of the study being written about 33% of Americans were fully vaccinated.
What Would Happen if 75% of Americans had the Vaccine Right Now?
And the final scenario is if at the time the study was written, so 04/06/2021, 75% of Americans were fully vaccinated. The drop off of infections, hospital patients, and ICU patients is crazy!
Just for reference, in case you didn't know, when 75% of the population is vaccinated that's enough to have herd immunity and life can go back to normal.
If you want to read the entire study you can find it HERE.
If you haven't gotten your COVID-19 vaccine and still have questions about it, keep scrolling to check out the answers to 30 common questions about the COVID vaccine.