Rochester School District Faces Significant Enrollment Decline, New Study Finds

Rochester, MN (KROC-AM News)- A significant enrollment decline is on the horizon for the Rochester Public School District (RPS). 

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That’s according to a presentation shown to school board members during a study session held Tuesday night. 

The district tabbed former Minnesota State Demographer Dr. Hazel Reinhardt to update the district’s enrollment projections for the next 10 years. 

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From 2014-2025, the district experienced a slight uptick in enrollment of 0.4%. 16,509 students are enrolled in RPS for the current school year, the study says. 

Significant Enrollment Drop Predicted to Hit Rochester Public School District Over the Next 10 Years

The enrollment increase peaked during the 2019-20 school year and has been in decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. Over that time span, kindergarten enrollment fell by 15%, according to the presentation. 

13.4% of school-aged children living in the district’s boundaries are not enrolled in RPS. That figure is above the statewide average of 10.5%, the presentation indicates. 

In the next five years, RPS enrollment is predicted to drop by 988-1,228 students, which would be a 6-7.4% decline from the current enrollment figure, according to the study. 

Within the next 10 years, RPS enrollment is predicted to fall under 15,000, which is a forecasted drop of 11.0% to 12.9% from current enrollment figures, the presentation says. 

The study cited increased competition from private schools, charter schools and homeschooling as well as declining birth rates. 

The presentation recommended solutions for RPS to regain a higher market share of students. 

Some of the recommendations involved reducing staff to match the financial realities of declining enrollment, adjusting programming to appeal to as many families as possible, and marketing the school district to residents within the RPS boundaries.